The Research Programme

11 Sigma is a quantitative research programme studying whether football markets can be modelled with sufficient precision to identify durable pricing error. The work is conducted in the manner of systematic investment research: probabilities are estimated, frozen, valued against executable prices, and allocated as a portfolio rather than as a sequence of isolated wagers.

The programme is deliberately narrow. It does not attempt to predict individual results, publish selections, or make claims about future profitability. Its output is a documented process, a calibration record, and an auditable ledger beginning from a theoretical capital base of £10,000.

The distinguishing commitment is sequencing. Forecasts are constructed without reference to market odds and recorded before prices are introduced. Nothing observed afterwards — the market, late information, or the eventual result — may revise the recorded forecast. Without that discipline, calibration cannot be measured and any apparent edge is unverifiable.

Detailed methodology, the performance ledger and research notes are available inside the research portal.